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Imobiliarele europene ies din recesiune din iulie
Agentii din toata lumea spera ca recuperarea din trim. IV sa imprime un nou trend in domeniul imobiliar Cele mai catastrofale piete rezidentiale - Riga si Dubai - incearca sa recupereze pierderea.
Piata mondiala a locuintelor da semne ca ar intra in convalescenta, insa e prea devreme pentru a cauta un tipar. Majoritatea pietelor rezidentiale importante din lume au semnalat o recuperare a preturilor la locuinte.
Astfel, pe parcursul ultimului trimestru al anului trecut, pretul caselor a crescut in 22 din 35 de tari pentru care exista statistici disponibile si a continuat sa scada doar in 11 state (plus Romania).
Cu toate acestea, desi trimestrul IV a reusit sa readuca zambetul pe buzele tuturor actorilor implicati in vanzarile de locuinte, este prematur sa spunem ca 2009 a fost un an fericit.
Anul trecut, in 19 tari, majoritatea europene, pretul locuintelor si-a continuat declinul, in timp ce alte piete nationale au intrat pe un fagas de crestere a preturilor rezidentiale. Cu alte cuvinte, desi evolutia din ultima jumatate de an ne sugereaza ideea unei recuperari partiale, rezultatul anual continua sa fie negativ.Asia - zborul „dragonului"
Pentru agentii imobiliari din statele asiatice, chiar si Emiratele Arabe Unite, datele privind evolutia pretului se prezinta foarte optimist. Orientul Apropiat traieste chiar clipe de glorie, gratie boomului imobiliar din Israel si Liban. Astfel, potrivit Global Property Guide, preturile locuintelor din Israel au crescut puternic incepand cu trimestrul IV din 2008, iar aceasta evolutie a fost confirmata si pe durata anului trecut. Potrivit sursei citate, in 2009 pretul mediu al locuintelor a crescut aici cu 15,5%, o cifra-record in ultimii 10 ani.
Si tarile din Asia-Pacific au intrat in raliul preturilor. Hong Kong si Taiwan sunt doua dintre destinatiile din zona care dau dovada de performanta de invidiat pentru alte piete dezvoltate. Preturile imobilelor de locuit din Hong Kong s-au intors la nivelul ridicat de dinaintea crizei. Piata de locuinte din Hong Kong a cunoscut o redresare rapida, preturile crescand cu 20,81% pe tot parcursul lui 2009, desi in primul trimestru al aceluiasi an aceasta a suferit un declin de 15%.
In Taiwan, preturile caselor s-au majorat cu 18,29% in 2009 si cu 4,7% in trimestrul IV. O ameliorare puternica s-a produs si la capitolul increderii investitorilor in piata taiwaneza, urmare a semnarii unui numar de acorduri economice intre Taiwan si China.In Singapore, dupa un declin de 9,59% al preturilor la locuinte in 2008, anul 2009 a reprezentat un adevarat montaigne russe pentru piata rezidentiala din aceasta tara. Astfel, daca in prima jumatate a anului trecut preturile au continuat sa scada, in trimestrele III si IV acestea au crescut cu 14,3%, respectiv 6,58%. Totusi, la nivelul anului 2009 pretul mediu al locuintelor a prezentat o majorare cu doar 2,12%. Guvernul din Singapore a reactionat rapid impotriva cumparatorilor speculativi prin promovarea unor norme de creditare mai stricte si introducerea taxei de timbru la revanzarea locuintelor. In zona Pacificului, Australia si Noua Zeelanda s-au mentinut pe trendul pe care au inceput sa-l experimenteze incepand cu jumatatea anului trecut. Pretul caselor in Australia a crescut in 2009 cu 11,28%, in timp ce in Noua Zeelanda cu 4,86%.
Cititi in link-ul de mai jos ce spun si ce cred top 100 jucatori pe piata imobiliara europeana.
http://documents.globalrealestate.org/2010/Retreat/ChairmensRetreat2010Conclusions.htm#17
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE
How long to the bottom?
Overhang from banks will hold prices back for some time. Eventually banks will have to sell, won't lend in big way until then – without that, no significant recovery.
Will banks start lending? Shrunk in big way. Overall still going down, bankers constrained by existing positions and capital ratios. But banks ARE willing to lend. Varies very much bank to bank – some banks very active for new business. LTVs clearly down. French banks in better way than most
At moment a very “bitty” market, “corrugated bottom”, a few one-off trades. Tenant demand still weak in may areas.
Interest rates are key – if they remain low. it will support a recovery . UK may well have lower interest rates than Euro Zone for some time. Long term rates in US have to increase.
Italy likely to be supported by massive repatriation of capital.
London – massive crash but incredible recent recovery especially the West End. City slower but clearly huge demand for high quality assets. Very difficult for buyers, rents recovering in good buildings. Investors don’t have a high risk appetite
Spreading now to rest of Europe – growing investor interest in quality assets
France – shortage of good space so rents have held up well in Paris. They did fall but not as much as London. Core buyers (e.g. German funds) driving yields back down.
POLL -- European real estate will reach bottom and start to recover in:
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
A recovery in 2011 or after is plausible, but it could also be still a long way to go. In general, a real recovery will be only possible if banks start to deal with their problems.
There is currently a growing investor’s interest in quality assets. [«back]
Western Europe - Where is the value now?
[«back]
PRIVATE EQUITY REAL ESTATE AND OPPORTUNITY FUNDS
Who will survive and how?
Which model works?
Financial service owned, privately entrepreneurial owned, division of non
financial company
Global, regional, local
Opportunity Fund business will be less lucrative
Fees changed to cost, carry paid at the end
Investors want more control
Fund managers that send investor relations people instead of deal people will be less successful
Fees will change for the worse, governance will be more intrusive
As investors look to make changes, managers that “don’t get it” won’t be here in 5 years
Fund managers that give up on current investors (complaining about lack of incentives due to loss of carry) will struggle to raise money. Their challenge is however how to incentivize junior staff
Managers need to be more empathetic to the state of mind of their constituents
Trouble happened when managers went out of their box
Personal conduct, culture and philosophy matter. So do track record, transparency and operating skill
Business had a good run, it will be changed and it will be successful again
Good platform, good reporting, open dialogue, hire good team
Asset class has not been damaged
POLL -- Real Estate Opportunity Funds 3 years hence will do, as a % of the investment they used to do annually in 2003-2007:
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Private Equity Real Estate and opportunity funds will not perform as well as they used to and there will be no improvement in the next 3 years.
There is still capital coming into real estate and capital seems to be growing.
It could be the same business coming back into the same hands.
But banks will be not be settling soon. We will face a slow period, but recovering in due course. In the next 3 years, opportunity funds might be more important lenders than banks.
The asset deal volume may be lower, but the equity deployment may be the same or even higher. [«back]
PROPERTY IN DISTRESS
where is the opportunity?
The market was expecting much more property in distress in 2009: the reality is pitiful …
Theoretically we should have seen many more opportunities
There is no work-out with banks, going slower than in the 1990s
Spain
Pricing is difficult – banks are loath to take losses
Banks buy the assets: quicker, cheaper, “good for everybody”
Liquidity problem over the next 2 years for banks
Focus on Ireland / UK
Banks have got to get smaller
CMBS will need to get sold. Could be a catalyst for trade
Banks: more worried about governmental messing around (salary discussion)
No leverage - is that the new game
Restarting the market needs a catalyst
CMBS ?
Banks pulling the plug on foreign operations?
Withdrawing the stimulus money ..but managed by politicians ….it therefore will take time. Nobody wants bad news again (especially the politicians)
If Japan's lost decade is anything to go by, nothing will happen until sometime in the next decade. Maybe.
POLL -- Distress buying opportunities in 2010 – 2011 will be:
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
There will be opportunities on a volatile basis. The real skill going forward will be when to jump in and when to jump out...
There have been good opportunities in 2009 (CMBS, bonds, etc.) and deals were done at advantageous terms.
It is not really a real estate crisis, with the exception of Spain. It’s a global economic crisis. There is no dramatic oversupply on the real estate market (exception of Spain) – therefore there won’t be as many opportunities as in the crisis of the 1990’s. [«back]
GLOBAL INVESTORS RETRENCHMENT FROM EMERGING MARKETS
Lasting withdrawal or short-lived suspension?
What are the real problems in emerging markets?
Perception is that the security of investment is weak due to less robust property rights.
Investors believe they can get superior returns in developed markets like North America (distressed opportunities) or Western Europe (distressed debt or higher yielding stabilized assets).
Harder to buy completed assets in many emerging markets (supply of institutional assets is thin in most emerging markets). This pushes investors to take development risk, which today is uncomfortable for many classes of investors.
Exit is considered to be much more uncertain.
Markets Must be Differentiated
Central Europe: Poland held up well. Greece is a disaster.
Russia / Eastern Europe: Highly volatile and risk perception is high. Boom to bust.
China: Fantastic now. But is it a bubble?
India: Performing well, but lacks transparency.
Brazil: emerging market star.
GenerallY: countries are less relevant, cities are more.
Is debt available for Investment? Development? If not, when?
Debt is very limited for investment, virtually non-existent for development.
International investors will not return until debt is readily available.
Do the returns warrant the risks? What risk premium will encourage capital to return?
If developed Europe has yields of 6% to 7%, then
Poland should probably be 7.5% to 8% (call it 150 basis points)
Russia: perhaps 10% to 12%
Will the superior growth in emerging markets continue? Will it warrant return of investment?
Yes: China and India are key to this trend.
This will cause investment to return over time, but the question is when.
POLL -- Global Investment into emerging markets will return to similar levels as 2003-2007:
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Investments are less secure, but in general the outlook is tentatively positive for 2011 - 2013.
Tremendous growth at grass-root-level. E.g. growth outside Mumbai.
There has been a decoupling: Western markets no longer set the rule for emerging markets. [«back]
Emerging Markets Investment Opportunities -- Where Next?
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Most investment opportunities will be outside Europe…
Big issue: withdraw of money of banks in CEE (they take their money home).
Long term perspective: Czech Republic (office) new investment opportunities.
India: difficult market. [«back]
2009-2011 will be the best buying opportunity in a generation?
[«back]
DEBT FINANCING
What is the new “normal”?
What are the recent experiences with raising new debt?
Situation improved after summer 2009
Banks want more control
65 % LTV, margin 200 - 260 bps in Western Europe
More due diligence, more complicated decision making in banks
Competition among banks coming back for prime product
Existence/quality of future cash flow crucial
In development situations: Pre-leasing requirements, margins going up, volumes lower, but development financing coming back slowly (i.e. residential in France)
What is the approach by banks?
Reopening over summer last year
Much more conservative structures
Higher pricing
Lending capacities exist
Market opportunities limited
Financings < 50 % LTV easily available (Pfandbrief) – although not for all kinds of assets
Tighter above, but 60 – 70 % possible
What are “normal” levels of leverage and structure?
Loan volumes available for real estate lower for years
Leverage above 60 % historically rather exceptional
“Second mortgage” or mezzanine capital potentially filling the gap
“Equity is not such a terrible thing”
What risks still come from the banking system?
Banks still have to manage their legacy
Only Pfandbrief market as source of refinancing has really opened
Government and central banks support still driving the situation
Syndication still fragile
Securitizations still years down the road
Can the business be run with 60 - 65 % debt?
Unanimous agreement
Opportunity funds do not necessarily require high leverage
Lower leverage can mean lower prices
POLL -- What level of senior debt financing for reasonable quality assets do you need for you business to work:
[«back]
What keeps you up at Night? (Economy)
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Example Greece: lack of tax income is a problem.
Big issue: end user demand/market supply. [«back]
Will the 2010 Long-term European interest rate environment be....
[«back]
In the medium-term you expect inflation to be....
[«back]
What percent of the total provisions required have The European banks taken to date
[«back]
European banks will manage their existing real estate loan portfolio by....
[«back]
When will the European Banks start to sell their bad assets?
[«back]
CASH IS KING
Who’s investing and what are they after?
Who is investing?
are 20% IRR opportunities available?
Do institutions believe in 20% IRR stories?
Is Real Estate a 20% IRR asset class?
With high leverage (not available)
Emerging Markets
Development
Vacant property/Story property
Corporate situations
NPLs
Are investors happy with lower returns?
Retruns of mid/high teens still a win
What is the point of Opportunity Funds if they don’t achieve high returns?
Should OFsgive the money back?
Core investors
REITs?
Open ended funds
Listed companies (Investing rights issue proceeds)
Private Buyers
Will pensions lower asset allocations to real estate as returns will be lower? Probably not, same allocation but massive deleverage will lead to fewer deals
What are they buying?
Major cities
Investment property
Property where there is a prospect of cap rate compression
Capital markets driving cap rates
Shortage of debt for ‘story’ property
Development in first class locations could be attractive . But how to fund it?
Partnership models (with institutions)
Agricultural land
Government property (debt reduction)
Wind down of CMBS market
POLL -- The biggest real estate investors in Europe in 2010 will be:
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
As soon as opportunities begin to show up, one will see a lot of buying. There is no lack of investment capital. The issue of debt is more crucial.
Banks will end up being the largest owners of real estate
People can’t find their value to achieve their returns
A short shift was given to the opportunity funds to some degree, there are two opportunistic investors actively doing deals.
There will be a return of CMBS. But in the meantime, the world can go on without CMBS.
The biggest real estate investors in Europe in 2011 and beyond will be:
[«back]
Will you be a net buyer or seller of assets
in 2010?
[«back]
GERMANY
Is the worst behind?
2009 was not a deep crisis in Germany – values and rents did not decline dramatically. Unemployment did not rise significantly and retail sales held up (e.g. car sales)
Real Estate Yields stay low - why invest there from outside?
Low interest rates continue to create pressure on increased prices for quality prime properties. German Funds preferring to invest in German property because it is stable (particularly compared with other countries)
So, why did foreign investors lose money? Went for lower Quality, high leverage, highly priced assets
Rental Levels (effective) remain under some pressure as new supply coming on. So the worst is not behind for underlying fundamentals.
Where is the economic driver for any GDP growth? Unclear. But, country and population is not as highly leveraged - so safer, lower returns.
Residential: people generally bullish on rental income investments, stable income – new specialty funds, more capital coming again.
Demographic changes negative, but migration into certain regions /cities.
German Banks – outlook – still bad news to come, pressure to deleverage, but no fire sales. Fair amount of CMBS hanging out over Germany.
German Insurance companies likely to pursue property investments to obtain yield.
POLL -- German commercial property value declines will continue:
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
The recovery has already begun in Germany… but there are some challenges to face…
Prime assets seem to be holding up well. B-class assets, many of them bought at expensive yields. These type of yields will never come back.
Secondary property is tougher in Germany than in the rest of Europe. [«back]
The key issues for the german market are....
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
No quick recovery for the German market…
Lack of growth as the key issue.
Rising interest rates are a concern.
Weak government as a reason for a lack of growth. [«back]
The key issues for the UK market are....
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Weak tenant demand (particularly in the retail market) is the serious issue in the UK especially in central London, but also rising taxes.
We also need to take interest rates seriously, if they rise prematurely. [«back]
The key issues for the French market are....
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Insufficient value correction to date is a problem, but what other aspects should we consider…?
Weak tenant demand is the issue.
Market value is quite attractive in France, insufficient value is in the minds of the French because of the other markets. [«back]
The key issues for the iberian market are....
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Oversupply of housing as the key problem – are there any positive news?
Good opportunities in the next 18 month
Distress in Spain means that there are some good opportunities for investments
We need economic recovery to solve all the problems. [«back]
Russia/CIS - too hot to handle?
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Opportunities for risky investors
A big market, but rough times ahead. In 2-3 years there will be some good opportunities again. [«back]
Do emerging EUROPEAN market returns justify the risk?
DISCUSSION & INDIVIDUAL COMMENTS
Central Europe: every country is different, tricky to compare them.
Long CEE, strongest country in CEE is Poland [«back]
UNDE E REVENIREA?
VISE , TATI, VISE!
Din păcate şi eu văd la fel viitorul...următorii cinci ani vor fi critici pentru noi...pentru că vom suporta excesele făcute de guvernanţii iresponsabili din ultimii zece ani...
Va fi un fel de wild wild west: jafuri la drumul mare şi oameni disperaţi care şi-au pierdut locul de muncă (uitaţi-vă la stirile de la ora 5 şi o să vedeţi că majoritatea crimelor şi infracţiunilor sunt săvârşite din cauza banilor). Mai grav, şomajul este în creştere şi degeaba încearcă politicienii să ascundă proporţiile.....situaţia devine critică.
Cât despre Băsescu prefer să nu comentez...după părerea mea nu va mai conta cine va fi preşedinte în scenariul acela cu stat aflat în insolvenţă...noi vom fi preocupaţi de ce vom pune pe masă ca va fi foamete mare...
Cum naiba să crească la noi...cine să ****ătească preţurile astronomice pe care le cer dezvoltatorii!
Faceţi odată un sondaj profesionist şi vedeţi pe populaţie se poate baza revenirea pieţei imobiliare...
Nu înţelegeţi că odată deschisă cutia pandorei cu preţuri mici la aprtamente NIMENI nu mai vrea să cumpere scump...
S-a terminat cu specula şi cu căştigurile enorme....populaţia cu venituri cât de cât s-a mai informat între timp şi nu mai pune botu la preţuri nereale.
Dacă vrei bani trebuie să şi oferi, nu mai merge cu prostitu...